US recession by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Current Market Data

Yes probability
25%
No probability
76%
Total volume
$1.3 million
24-hour volume
$55K
Closing date
January 31, 2027

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "US recession by end of 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 25% chance of Yes and 76% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "US recession by end of 2026?"?

This market has seen $1.3 million in total trading volume, with $55K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on January 31, 2027. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 7 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 32% to 25%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

US recession by end of 2026?
ACTIVEBusiness

US recession by end of 2026?

$1.3M Vol$55.0K 24h$58.0K Liq↘ 7.0% 24h

My Positions

Loading orderbook...
Loading trades...

Market Talks

Resolution Details

Created AtSep 23, 2025, 11:06 AM ET

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

FAQ

What are the current odds for "US recession by end of 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 25% chance of Yes and 76% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "US recession by end of 2026?"?

This market has seen $1.3 million in total trading volume, with $55K traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on January 31, 2027. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved down 7 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 32% to 25%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.