Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
4%
No probability
96%
Total volume
$5.3 million
24-hour volume
$2.7 million
Closing date
April 30, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 4% chance of Yes and 96% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?"?

This market has seen $5.3 million in total trading volume, with $2.7 million traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 2 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 2% to 4%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
ACTIVEGeopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

$5.3M Vol$2.7M 24h$383.9K Liq 2.2% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtFeb 25, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 4% chance of Yes and 96% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?"?

This market has seen $5.3 million in total trading volume, with $2.7 million traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on April 30, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 2 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 2% to 4%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.