AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
0%
No probability
100%
Total volume
$385K
Closing date
December 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the result for "AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?"?

This market has resolved. The final outcome was determined based on the resolution source. Shares for the correct outcome resolved to $1.00 and incorrect outcomes resolved to $0.00.

AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?
RESOLVEDBusiness

AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?

$385.0K Vol↘ 0.1% 24h
Market closed — no longer accepting trades

My Positions

Loading orderbook...
Loading trades...

Market Talks

Resolution Details

Created AtNov 19, 2025, 9:24 AM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

What was the result for "AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?"?

This market has resolved. The final outcome was determined based on the resolution source. Shares for the correct outcome resolved to $1.00 and incorrect outcomes resolved to $0.00.