AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Current Market Data

Yes probability
20%
No probability
80%
Total volume
$2.0 million
24-hour volume
$395
Closing date
December 31, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 20% chance of Yes and 80% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?"?

This market has seen $2.0 million in total trading volume, with $395 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 19% to 20%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?
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AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

$2.0M Vol$395 24h$10.9K Liq↗ 1.1% 24h

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Resolution Details

Created AtNov 19, 2025, 9:25 AM ET

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

FAQ

What are the current odds for "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?"?

Traders currently give this a 20% chance of Yes and 80% chance of No. Odds shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.

How much has been traded on "AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?"?

This market has seen $2.0 million in total trading volume, with $395 traded in the last 24 hours. Higher volume generally indicates stronger market consensus and tighter spreads.

When does this market close?

This market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. At resolution, shares for the correct outcome pay out $1.00 while incorrect shares resolve to $0.00.

What is the price trend for this market?

Yes has moved up 1 points in the last 24 hours — from approximately 19% to 20%. Price movements reflect changing trader sentiment and new developments.

How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the crowd's estimated probability of an outcome. A share priced at $0.65 implies a 65% chance. You can buy shares if you think the probability is higher than the price, or sell if you think it's lower. When the market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.