Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets in this Event
Frequently Asked Questions
How many markets are available for "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"?
There are 1 active prediction market available for "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?", with $4.2 million in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.
What is the most traded market in this event?
The most traded market is "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?" with $4.2 million in volume. Current odds: Yes at 42%.
When do these markets close?
Markets in this event are scheduled to close around June 30, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.
How do prediction markets work?
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets
| Outcome | Buy |
|---|---|
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? 42%↗ 2.0%$4.22M |