Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? — Prediction Markets on FrenFlow
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an a listed country's missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by a listed country's ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markets in this Event
Frequently Asked Questions
How many markets are available for "Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?"?
There are 1 active prediction market available for "Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?", with $436K in combined trading volume. Each market focuses on a different aspect or outcome.
What is the most traded market in this event?
The most traded market is "Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?" with $436K in volume. Current odds: Yes at 38%.
When do these markets close?
Markets in this event are scheduled to close around March 7, 2026. Individual markets may have different resolution dates depending on their specific conditions.
How do prediction markets work?
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. For "Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?", you can buy shares representing different outcomes. Share prices reflect the crowd's estimated probabilities. When a market resolves, correct shares pay $1.00 and incorrect shares pay $0.00.
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an a listed country's missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by a listed country's ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markets
| Outcome | Buy |
|---|---|
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? 38%$435.99K |